sorlineup

, 3 min read

Choosing a captain

What to check before picking a captain

Pick a midfielder or a forward with an L10 of 60 or more, in a team with at least a 55% chance of winning. Across 33 leagues since July 2025, such a midfielder scores 75 or more in 29% of starts, such a forward in 33%. Across all starting midfielders and forwards, the figure is about 9%.

The figures here are measured across all the starters of a league, typically 148 in one gameweek, counting starters with at least 5 earlier matches. How well they separate the five cards of your own lineup is not measured.

Form or the team's chance of winning?

Both. Across all positions, the chance of winning is a slightly better guide to a score of 75 or more than the L10. The two multiplied are a better guide than either alone.

A forward scores 75 or more most often when in form and in a team expected to win

A forward's chance of scoring 75 or more in a match, by recent form and by the team's chance of winning.

Player's average over the last 10 matches (L10)Under 5050 to 5960 or more
0102030Chance of scoring 75 or more (%)Under 40%40% to 54%55% or morePlayer'sL10Chanceof 75+<5013.4%5.6%, Under 50, Under 40%9.0%, Under 50, 40% to 54%13.4%, Under 50, 55% or more50-5918.9%9.3%, 50 to 59, Under 40%14.4%, 50 to 59, 40% to 54%18.9%, 50 to 59, 55% or more60+32.5%15.7%, 60 or more, Under 40%22.3%, 60 or more, 40% to 54%32.5%, 60 or more, 55% or moreTeam's chance of winning the match
Forwards, 24,122 league starts in 33 competitions, July 2025 to September 2026. L10 is the player's average score over the last 10 matches. The chance of scoring 75 or more is the share of those past matches where it happened. The chance of winning comes from the closing odds. Source: sorlineup.

For forwards with an L10 of 60 or more, the chance of scoring 75 or more is twice as high in a team at 55% or more as in a team under 40%. Midfielders follow the same pattern, from 16% to 29%. In a team at 55% or more, a forward's chance is more than twice as high with an L10 of 60 or more as with an L10 under 50.

Does playing at home add anything?

No, once the chance of winning is known. Players reach 75 more often at home, but at the same chance of winning the gap almost disappears. Among outfield players in teams with a 55% to 70% chance of winning, the rate is 15.3% at home and 15.1% away.

Which positions should you avoid?

Goalkeepers, judged here on average bonus points, not on the chance of a 75. Captaining the starter with the best L10 in a league, every gameweek, brings 30.1 bonus points on average. The goalkeeper with the best L10 brings 24.8, no better than a starter picked at random (24.7). The defender with the best L10 brings 28.0: below the best L10 overall (30.1), above a starter picked at random.

How far back should you look?

At least 10 matches. The L5 is the weakest guide to a score of 75 or more. The L10 is better, and the L15 slightly better again.

When they start, players who scored or assisted in their last match score about 2 points lower, measured against their L15, than players who did neither. Read the L10 or the L15, not last week's goal.

Method and limits

The data covers 152,681 league starts in 33 domestic competitions, from 5 July 2025 to 23 September 2026. Most figures use the 113,872 starts by players with at least 5 earlier matches, and fewer still where the chance of winning is needed. The captain comparisons cover 761 league gameweeks. L5, L10 and L15 are recomputed from past matches and can differ from the values Sorare shows. The chance of winning comes from the odds, in most cases the closing ones. Where both a pre-kick-off and a closing value exist, they differ by 1.7 percentage points on average. The effect of using the value seen at the deadline is not measured yet. None of this predicts a match: the figures describe an average over a season.