Choosing a lineup

At every outfield position, the team's chance of winning is at least as good a guide as the player's L10, and it lifts a defender's average at least as much as a forward's. So look first at the team's chance (for a goalkeeper or a defender, its chance of a clean sheet), then, for an outfield player, use the L10 to choose between players whose chances are close.

Which goalkeeper?

The one whose team has the best chance of a clean sheet. When that chance is 55% or more, a starting goalkeeper scores 60 or more in 57% of starts. Under 15%, he does so in 18%. The chance is read from the odds, and sorlineup's lineup panel shows it next to each goalkeeper and defender. The rest is in Choosing a goalkeeper.

Which defender?

The one whose team has the best chance of a clean sheet, as for the goalkeeper.

An outfield starter scores about 15 points more at 70% or more to win than under 25%

Average score of a starter by position, by his team's chance of winning the match, in five bands.

PositionDefendersMidfieldersForwards

Average score

0204060

43.0

45.1

45.8

47.3

48.1

48.3

51.8

51.1

51.5

55.6

54.8

54.5

59.7

60.1

59.6

Under 25%25% to 40%40% to 55%55% to 70%70% or more

Team's chance of winning

Team's chance of winning

Under 25%

43.0

45.1

45.8

25% to 40%

47.3

48.1

48.3

40% to 55%

51.8

51.1

51.5

55% to 70%

55.6

54.8

54.5

70% or more

59.7

60.1

59.6

0204060

Average score

The figure measures the chance of winning, which rises with the chance of a clean sheet. A defender's average rises from 43.0 when his team is under 25% to win to 59.7 when it is 70% or more.

Which midfielder or forward?

The one whose team has the best chance of winning. Between two players with a similar chance, take the one with the better L10. Among starters whose team has at least a 55% chance of winning, a midfielder averages 53.0 with an L10 under 50 and 63.2 with an L10 of 60 or more, and the gap is about the same for a forward.

Which captain?

A midfielder or a forward with an L10 of 60 or more, in a team with at least a 55% chance of winning. The figures are in Choosing a captain.

Method and limits

The figure and the L10 numbers cover 113,872 league starts in 33 competitions (106,600 with a chance of winning, 97,386 of them by outfield players, as in the figure), 5 July 2025 to 23 September 2026, by players with at least 5 earlier matches. The L10 is recomputed and can differ from the value Sorare shows. The chances come from the odds, mostly the closing ones, which you do not see before the deadline. The goalkeeper figures count starters who played 60 minutes or more in 50 competitions, 1 July 2025 to 22 September 2026, and the clean sheet chance read from the odds is about 5 percentage points too high on average. How well this separates the five cards of your own lineup is not measured, and none of it predicts a match.